Is the market ever going to crash?

The NASDAQ index increased by almost 30% in the last two months.

The median last 12-month trailing price-to-earnings ratio for major semiconductor stocks like Micron, AMD, Intel, Marvell, and Nvidia is 55 times.

The next 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio for major semiconductor stocks is trading at around 35 times.

Intel is not generating any earnings in the past months but has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of over 100 times.

Mac 7 companies have already committed around $700 billion in capital expenditures to buy more chips for data centers in 2026.

Public shareholders expect at least a 20% return on capital expenditures from large companies.

Applying a conservative 20x multiple to $400 billion in earnings means Mac 7 companies' combined market cap needs to increase by about $8 trillion to justify upcoming capital expenditure spendings.

Eight majority Fed members believed a rate cut would happen eventually but not immediately, remaining neutral on a current rate cut.

Myron, one of the four dissenting Fed members, advocated for an immediate rate cut.

Three other dissenting Fed members wanted to remove the easing bias, believing a rate cut does not need to happen at any time in the future.

The Defiant Gatekeeper predicts that if Kevin Warsh steps in as the new Fed chair, he will face significant challenges convincing board members to follow his lead due to the division seen in the April 2026 FOMC.

Kevin Warsh supports the contraction of the Federal Reserve balance sheet.

The Defiant Gatekeeper predicts that if any of the upcoming IPOs fail to meet demand or justify their valuation, overall market sentiment could break, leading to a significant market drop.

AMD's revenue is $35 billion with earnings at $8.8 billion.

The Defiant Gatekeeper believes the US cannot afford to have the stock market crash, as demonstrated by the US-Iran war where Trump wanted to prevent oil price increases and a market crash to maintain his popularity.

The Defiant Gatekeeper predicts that new innovations like full self-driving and humanoid robots will require double or triple the amount of chips from semiconductor companies, extending the current cycle for many years.

The Defiant Gatekeeper plans to sell under three scenarios: major semiconductor or AI companies indicate plateauing or missed revenue/earnings growth, Kevin Warsh fails to convince the Fed for a rate cut, or forward price-to-earnings of semiconductor and Mac 7 stocks reach over 45-50 times.

Now in order for the trip companies to continue to generate 2 to 4x of earnings in the following years, the Max 7s need to commit at least $2 trillion or more in the coming years.