The Defiant Gatekeeper predicts that if Kevin Warsh steps in as the new Fed chair, he will face significant challenges convincing board members to follow his lead due to the division seen in the April 2026 FOMC.

Deutsche Bank analysts estimate that under Kevin Warsh, Treasury bills could rise from less than 5% of Fed holdings to as much as 55% over the next 5 to 7 years.

The Defiant Gatekeeper plans to sell under three scenarios: major semiconductor or AI companies indicate plateauing or missed revenue/earnings growth, Kevin Warsh fails to convince the Fed for a rate cut, or forward price-to-earnings of semiconductor and Mac 7 stocks reach over 45-50 times.