Housing Market Update 2026 — The Hidden Costs Are Surging - YouTube

AI Summary

The speaker provides a housing market update for 2026, asserting that there is no housing market crash currently occurring, with median home prices in the US standing at $429,226, up 0.9% year-over-year. He contrasts this with the last crash where prices fell by 30%. The speaker argues that a crash requires significantly more supply than demand, noting that current home listings are 1.7 million, slightly down from 12 months ago. While foreclosures are rising (up 14% year-over-year as of December 31st, 2025), they are still below 2005 levels, and the speaker suggests a similar trajectory to the last crash would mean home prices bottoming out in 2034. He cites predictions from Fannie Mae, Reuters, and the National Association of Realtors for modest home price growth in 2026, concluding that late 2025 and 2026 will likely be a 'boring year' for the housing market. The video also addresses mortgage interest rates, which are stalling around 6% due to their correlation with 10-year Treasury notes. The speaker explains that an ongoing conflict, rising inflation expectations, and higher oil prices are pushing 10-year note rates up, consequently affecting mortgage rates. He predicts that if the war ends and oil prices fall, mortgage rates will decrease, but warns that government money printing to fund wars will cause inflation and drive home prices up. A significant focus is placed on the 'hidden costs' of homeownership, revealing that since 2019, property insurance costs are up 72% and property taxes are up 31%, which could worsen affordability even if mortgage rates fall. The home affordability index remains depressed, far below pre-pandemic levels of 160-170. Finally, the speaker discusses migration patterns, noting that California, New York, and Illinois are seeing the most people leave, while Florida remains the top destination, and surprisingly, Sacramento is the number one city people are moving to, despite California's overall outflow.

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