AI Summary
Andrei Jikh argues that the US dollar is poised to lose significant value in the coming years due to a "master plan" by the Federal Reserve to manipulate economic data and engage in covert quantitative easing. He begins by discussing a failed US-Iran peace deal, which he links to an internal conflict between the military-industrial complex and the technological-industrial complex, suggesting the latter needs stability for AI buildout. Jikh claims that Fed Chair Kevin Powell is strategically acting hawkish now by holding interest rates steady, despite Trump's desire for lower rates, to build credibility and independence. This allows Powell to later lower rates and print money under the guise of "data-driven" decisions. The core of this plan involves creating "five task forces" to redefine how the Fed measures the economy and inflation, potentially using new real-time data to craft a narrative that inflation is under control, even if it isn't. Jikh asserts that the Fed is considering using a "trimmed mean PCE" to exclude volatile elements like oil, making inflation appear lower. Furthermore, he explains how the Fed plans to "launder" quantitative easing through commercial banks by re-exempting treasuries from the Supplemental Leverage Ratio (SLR), allowing banks to buy bonds the Fed sells, effectively printing money without it appearing on the Fed's balance sheet. However, Jikh notes two major problems for this plan: the bond market's skepticism, evidenced by a flattening yield curve and increased risk premium, and the critical role of oil prices, which must remain low for the inflation narrative to hold. He concludes by citing Luke Groman's five signs of the plan working (weaker dollar, higher stocks, lower 10-year yields, higher gold, higher Bitcoin), noting that on "Wednesday," all signs flashed the opposite, indicating the plan is currently failing.
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