Сожжены нефтяные причалы терминала Шесхарис | Поврежден фрегат ЧФ РФ | Z-блогеры ждут мобилизацию
AI Summary
On April 6th, Ivan Yakovina reported on recent Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian infrastructure, highlighting a significant strike on the port of Novorossiysk. This attack severely damaged the Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich and extensively hit the Sheskharis oil terminal, which is part of Transneft and handles 20% of Russia's marine oil and petroleum exports. Yakovina noted the apparent lack of effective Russian air defense during the 4-hour attack, suggesting the terminal would be non-operational for weeks or months. He further explained that these attacks, combined with previous strikes on Ust-Luga and Primorsk, have crippled Russia's oil export capabilities, potentially leaving 2/3 of its oil without an outlet and causing an 'oil thrombosis' within the country, especially as global oil prices are high. Ivan Yakovina asserts that these economic blows are forcing Vladimir Putin to consider a new wave of mobilization, which he believes would be catastrophic for Russia. He argues that conditions in 2026 are far worse than in 2022, with a weakening economy, declining public support, and over a million casualties, making forced recruitment highly unpopular and potentially revolutionary. Yakovina cites various Russian 'Z-bloggers' and military figures who also express concerns about mobilization leading to strategic defeat or social unrest, particularly given the changed nature of modern drone warfare where mass infantry is easily targeted. He concludes by advising Russian men to avoid military service if mobilized, predicting high casualties for unprepared recruits.
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